美国往年流感_梁建章:从美国流感数据看新冠肺炎疫情


作者(携程创始人、北京大学光华管理学院教授、网易研究局专栏作家)、黄(特邀中国与全球化智库高级研究员、网易研究局专栏作家)

2-020的春节令人担忧。随着新型冠状病毒(以下简称“新冠状肺炎”)疫情的蔓延,武汉和湖北的许多城市已经实施了交通管制。全国共有30个省级行政区域相继启动重大突发公共卫生事件应急预案,并发布疫情控制措施。然而,随着确诊病例的增加,这些强有力的措施并没有完全减轻公众的恐慌。< br>

根据初步资料,新冠状肺炎传染性更强,但死亡率低于非典型肺炎许多感染者没有症状或只有轻微症状,而大多数重症病例和死亡是老年人,并感染了潜在疾病。新冠状肺炎的这些特征与流感相似,都属于呼吸道传染病,尽管临床表现不同。

鉴于新冠状病毒肺炎与流行性感冒之间的相似性,我们可以对两者的流行病学资料进行简单的比较因为中国的流感统计标准不同,数据也不完整,我们使用美国疾病控制和预防中心的数据来了解美国的流感状况。这些数据基于专业数据抽样和模型,具有不同年份之间的稳定性和可比性。

表1:美国从2010-2011年流感季节到2018-2019年流感季节的估计流感负担

美国往年流感

数据来源:美国疾病控制中心(CDC)

基于上述年平均数据可以计算出美国流感的几个比率:

流行率=疾病数量/美国总人口=28,646。765/320000000 =9%

发病率死亡率=死亡/发病率= 37462/28,646,765 = 0.13%

发病率会诊率=出诊率/发病率= 13,313,372/28,646,765 = 46%

发病率住院率=住院率/发病率=446,729/28,646,765

根据:

患病死亡率=死亡/患病人数

确诊人数=患病人数*患病确诊率

我们可以得出结论:

患病死亡率=死亡/确诊人数*患病确诊率

根据湖北省外的数据,我们可以得出以下结论:

湖北省外疾病死亡率= 6/1872*确诊率= 0.32根据美国46%的流感出诊率,湖北以外的疾病死亡率为=0.32%*46%=0.14%,仅略高于过去几年美国0.13%的流感死亡率。

,但应强调的是,上述计算仅基于当前可用的数据。由于新皇冠肺炎的症状将逐渐恶化,并在第二周达到高峰,湖北省外的感染时间普遍晚于湖北省,目前治愈率仍然很低,因此暂时不能排除死亡率在未来会急剧上升。下面我们来看看湖北的情况:

湖北省的死亡率是100/2714 *确诊率是3.68% *确诊率是

如果确诊率也估计为46%,那么湖北省的死亡率将高达1.69%,远远高于湖北省以外的死亡率然而,在中国具有相似群体基因的不同地区之间,相同病毒的死亡率不可能有很大差异。因此,更有可能的是,湖北省的诊断率远低于全国,因为湖北省目前缺乏足够的诊断和检测能力来诊断受感染人群,而且许多症状较轻的患者可能会按照建议在家中进行自我隔离,因此尚未纳入统计数据。

,也就是说,湖北省实际感染人数可能远远高于目前确诊病例数考虑到大多数死亡病例会在死前出现严重症状并有机会去看医生,我们有理由推测湖北省的最终死亡人数不会被低估。这样,湖北省的实际感染死亡率可能比上述估计数字低得多。

由于新皇冠肺炎在武汉地区已经流行了一两个月,而且在第一个月没有受到太多的干预,新皇冠肺炎的传播程度在一定程度上可以与美国的流感相媲美。在过去9年中,美国流感的平均人口患病率为9%。如果三分之一的流感爆发集中在冬季,那么3%的人口将被感染。据武汉市统计局称武汉有1100万常住人口,如果患病率估计为3%,将有33万人。如果有330,000名患者,这听起来是一个可怕的数字,但在这种非常悲观的假设下,死亡人数与流行性流感相似,可能达到300-600人,基于0.1%到0.2%的死亡率当然,任何死亡都是一个巨大的悲剧,但是在同样人口规模的美国城市中,每年由流感导致的死亡人数也应该在这个数量级。此外,我相信在中国政府采取的各种有效防疫措施下,实际效果可能远低于3%的流行率。

由于没有治疗流感的特效药,大多数流感患者会在家休息而不是住院,除非他们有严重的症状。根据表1中的数据,2011年至2019年美国流感感染者的住院率为1.6%如果所有有流感症状的人都住院,住院需求将会放大几十倍,这将使任何城市的医务人员超负荷工作,甚至导致医疗系统崩溃。幸运的是,中国政府正全力支持武汉,直接增加医疗供应,并大大减少该地区的恐慌。

由于武汉甚至湖北的医院目前无法接收许多疑似病人,人们普遍担心许多感染者没有被统计在内,因此实际感染人数可能远远高于公布的确诊人数。美国流感的流行率似乎也支持了这一推测。

但如果湖北省新发肺炎死亡人数今后不显著增加,即使湖北省确诊病例数显著增加,也只能说明实际感染病例数超过预期。然而,实际感染人数越高,与根据湖北确认人数计算的死亡率相比,湖北实际感染死亡率就越低。此外,即使湖北省确诊病例的数量没有显著增加,也可能是因为许多无症状或轻微症状的感染者听从建议并在家中保持隔离,这并不意味着湖北省以外地区的感染率被低估最重要的是,只要湖北以外地区的死亡率今后不大幅上升,新冠状病毒的死亡率与美国流感的死亡率之间的差距就不会太大。

我们还可以比较新发肺炎和非典型肺炎的死亡率:根据世界卫生组织的数据,截至2003年5月29日,全球报告了8295例非典型肺炎,750例死亡,死亡率为9.04%可以看出,在新皇冠肺炎、非典和流感这三种传染病中,新皇冠肺炎的死亡率接近流感,但远低于非典。

综上所述,只要死亡率没有大的变化,即使确诊病例的数量会迅速上升,我们仍然倾向于对疫情保持谨慎和乐观。当然,这并不是建议放松防疫措施,而是希望理性分析将有助于缓解不必要的恐慌。上述分析也支持当前政府的建议,即在家中隔离无症状或轻度患者。没有哪个国家或城市能治疗所有有感冒症状的病人。恐慌治疗和住院治疗只会增加当前医疗系统的负担,并可能增加感染病毒的风险

需要解释的是,本文的推断是基于美国流感的历史数据和本次疫情的最新数据。今后,我们还必须密切观察全球疫情的数据,包括来自湖北以外国家和其他国家的数据。关键是死亡数据。如果湖北以外(包括中国以外)的死亡病例长期保持在非常低的水平,那么本文相对谨慎和乐观的推测有助于缓解普遍的恐慌。我们还注意到,世界卫生组织1月23日表示,该流行病尚未构成国际关注的公共卫生紧急情况,并且不建议任何更广泛的旅行和贸易限制。我们不知道世卫组织的决定是否与湖北以外的低死亡率,特别是国外的零死亡率有关,但我们相信从本文的角度提供的分析将有助于世卫组织和其他政府和企业更好地判断疫情,并采取适当和合理的措施。

收集报告投诉

报告文章

主题方谣言内容不良色情旧新闻广告质量差来源反动封建迷信误言许多其他确认已取消

报告评论

色情营销广告恶意攻击滥用政治反应确认已取消

北京公共网络设备11010502033561互联网药品信息服务资格证书北京网络文字[2015]第0377-157号北京国际比较方案证书编号140123

一点=窗口。一点| | { }; window . yidian . docinfo = { " query ":{ " s ":"," appid ":"," s_real ":"," id":"0OVFpmKy"}," is_debug":false," is_test":false," is_login":false," is _ account ":false," user_info":{"status":"success "," code":0," userid":385806," utk":"0089ou9y "," username ":" yidian zixun-guest @ yidian-Inc . com ","昵称"" {"share _ id ":"C3 ","名称":"娱乐","类型":"类别","类别":"娱乐"," fromId":"c3 ","校验和":"娱乐","图像":" HTTP:\ X2F \ x2fs.go2yd.com \ X2F d 9 \ x2z 4 _ 3y 00 D1 d 1 . jpg " },{"share _ id": "C7 ","名称":"军事","类型":"类别","类别":"军事"," fromId":"c7 ","校验和":"军事","图像":" HTTP:\ x2x 2 "图像": " HTTP:\ X2F \ X2F \ X2FSI 1.GO2YD.com \ X2 FGET-图像\ X2F0OHHXAYWARG " },{ "名称":"一个点","类型":"网址","网址":" X2媒体列表"," cantedit": true},{"share _ id": "e36742 ","名称":"动画","类型":"类别"," fromid": "e36742 ","校验和":"动画","图像":" HTTP:\ X2F \ x2fsi1.go2yd.com \ X2 FGET-图像 "图像":" HTTP:\ X2F \ x2fs.go2yd.com \ X2FB \ x2ficierynn _ 0x 00 D1 d 1 . jpg " },{"share _ id": "C5 "," name": "finance "," type":"category "," category": "finance "," fromId":"c5 ","校验和":" finance "," Image ":" HTTP:\ X2F \ x2fs.go2yd.com \ X2F ICR 29 o4j _ a 000 D1 d 1 . jpg " },{"Share _ id": "C6 "," Name": "Technology "," X2 FIDGP 7P8R _ 8100 D1 1 . jpg " },{"Share _ ID": "U241 ","名称":"美丽","类型":"图片","发件人ID": "U241 ","校验和":"美丽","图像":" HTTP:\ X2F \ x2fs.go2yd.com \ X2FB \ ficwrp 5iu _ 1 g00 D1 1 . jpg " },{"share _ id": "C16 ","名称":"健康","类型":"类别","类别":"健康","发件人id": "C1 X2 FIGRRUIX _ 7K 00D 1 d1.jpg " },{"SHARE _ ID ":"S10671 "," NAME ":"滑稽","类型":"类别","发件人身份":" S10671 ","校验和":"滑稽","图像":" http:\ x2f \ X2FS.GO2YD.com \ XFB \ X2 FICS UL 199 _ 9800D1D1.jpg " },{"SHARE _ ID ":"T19189 "," NAME ":"收音机","类型":"音频"," FROMID ":"T19189 ","校验和":" " is _ login": false}、" is _ imedia": 1546455、" doc": {"date": "2020.1.29 "、" dsource ":"一点信息"、"摘要":" 2020年春节"令人担忧随着新型冠状病毒(以下简称“新冠状肺炎”)疫情的蔓延,武汉和湖北的许多城市已经实施了交通管制。全国共有30个省级行政区域相继启动重大突发公共卫生事件应急预案,并发布疫情控制措施。然而,随着确诊病例的增加,这些强有力的措施并没有完全减轻公众的恐慌。”,“图像_网址”:[“0OVFPMIE 24”,“0OVFPMWPHY”],“来源”:“网易研究局”,“作者_数据类型”:“一点好”,“标题”:“梁建章:从美国流感数据看新皇冠肺炎流行”,“网址”:“HTTP:\ X2F \ X2 FWWW.Yidianzixun.com \ X2FMP \ X2内容?Id = 268454035888928,“I _ alliance _ scope”:16400,“category”:“health”,“image”:“http:\ x2f \ x2fi1.go2yd.com \ x2fimage.php?url=0OVFpmfQN3 "," upload_images_v":[]," enable_top":true," upload_images":["0OVFpmfQN3"]," edit_cover":true," comment_count":1916," up":271," like":184," auth":true," is_gov":false," content_type":"news "、" ctype":"news "、" b_political":false," docid":"0OVFpmKy "、" dt type ":1," wemedia_id":1546455当日新增治愈出院病例1578例,医学观察释放密切接触者3235例,重症病例302例。截至3月10日24时,根据“3”、“来源”、“国家卫生和卫生委员会”、“作者_数据类型”、“来源”、“标题”、“湖北省除武汉市外连续6天在美国新增10例境外输入病例”和“网址”:“http" comment_count":892," enable_top":true," edit_cover":true," removed":false," down":1," scope":0," auth":true," is_gov":false," content_type":"news "、" ctype":"news "、" b_political":false," docid":"0OpZl21T "、" dt type ":0," wemedia_id":1882003," image":"0OpZl2QuE7 "、" impid ":_ 158406675986 _ 00003一项回顾性研究发现,第一名确诊患者是在2019年12月1日确诊的,没有接触华南海产品市场的历史,也没有在第一名确诊患者和后来确诊的病例之间发现任何流行病学。新的冠状病毒来自哪里?专家这么说!“,”网址“:”https:\ x2f \ x2fmp.weixin.qq.com \\ x2f \ \\ f20 \\ f20 \\ mtype \\ f20 \\ f20 \\ f20 \\ f20 \\ f20 \\ f20 \\ f20 \\ f20 \\ f20 \\ f20 \\ f20 \\ f20 \\ f20 \\ f20 \\ f20 \\ f20comment_count":572," auth":true," is_gov":false," content_type":"news "," ctype":"news "," b_political":false," docid":"0OpWb8fs "," dt type ":0," wemedia_id":1882003," enable_top":true," image":"0OpWb80KiO "," impid ":_ 1584066775986 _ 0OVFPMky _ n2n "," detail ":{ " VF actor ":" news 22000675986测试结果显示,患者体内不再有艾滋病毒,并且已经停止服用抗逆转录病毒药物20个月。这是世界上第一个被治愈的“柏林病人”,“图像_属性_更新”:错误,“来源”:“深度技术”,“作者_数据类型”,“一点好”,“标题”:“确认!人类历史上第二个艾滋病患者出现了。Id = 28381083251136,“我_联盟_范围”:8,“类别”:“健康、科学”、“图像”:“0optvx2kte”、“上传_图像_ v”:[],“喜欢”:7,“评论_计数”:2,“向上”:3,“授权”:真。" is_gov":false," content_type":"news "," ctype":"news "," b_political":false," docid":"0OptVXgn "," dt type ":1," wemedia_id":110877," enable_top":true," impid ":_ 1584066775986 _ 0OVFPMky _ n2n "," detail ":{ " vfactor":"news2news_WemediaNews "," factor ":" news 2news _ WemediaNEWs "," trans _ info": { "在数亿年的进化过程中,这种关系非常完整,并且与我们常说的食物链有一定的联系。“WM _ copyright”:“Original”,“Image _ ATTRIBUT _ UPDATE”:FALSE,“SOURCE”:“Doctor of No Medicine”,“AUTHOR _ DTYPE”:“Yidian Hao”,“Title”:“新皇冠病毒有天敌吗?听听专家们怎么说,“网址”:“HTTP: \ X2F \ X2 FWWW。伊甸Zixun.com \ X2?Id=283002186576288," "类别":"健康,科学","图像":" 0opib4hqy "," upload _ images _ v ":[]," like ":1," removed ":false," scope ":0," up ":1," auth ":true," is _ gov ":false。" content_type":"news "," ctype":"news "," b_political":false," docid ":" 0Opb40y "," dt type ":1," wemedia_id":192252," enable_top":true," impid ":_ 1584066775986 _ 0OVFPMky _ n2n "," detail ":{ " vfactor":"news2news_fromid_rel "," factor ":" news 2 news _ fromid _ rel "," trans _ info": {"factor ":"通过对武汉市191例重症肺炎患者的分析,确认高龄是导致新发肺炎死亡的最危险因素。此外,文章首次研究了新的冠状病毒感染人体后,病毒将继续繁殖约20天,最多37天。”,“WM _ copyright”:“Original”,“Image _ ATTRIBUT _ UPDATE”:False,“Source”:“内分泌科医生胡”,“Author _ DTYPE”:“一点好”,“Title”:“柳叶刀最新发现:新冠状病毒37天内复制!“,”URL“:”http:\ x2f \u fwww . yidianshin . com \u FMP \u x2f content?Id=283409643168288 ","类别","类别": "健康","形象":" 0opxfl12lq "," upload _ images _ v": []," comment _ count": 23," like": 12," up": 11," auth": true," is _ gov": false。" content_type":"news "," ctype":"news "," b_political":false," docid":"0OpxFLm1 "," dt type ":1," wemedia_id":2206589," enable_top":true," impid ":_ 1584066775986 _ 0OVFPMky _ n2n "," detail ":{ " vfactor":"news2news_fromid_rel "," factor ":" news 2 news _ fromid _ rel "," trans _ info": {"factor " "我相信每个人都知道,新冠状病毒的传播主要是通过呼吸道飞沫和密切接触。同时,当在相对封闭的环境中长时间暴露于高浓度气溶胶中时,可能通过气溶胶传播新的冠状病毒。然而,还应注意因粪便和尿液污染环境而引起的气溶胶或接触传播。“,”wm _版权“:“原创”,“图像_属性_更新”:真,“来源”:“药剂师房建”,“作者_数据类型”:“一点好”,“标题”:“不要密切接触新冠状病毒”。它有多安全?医生说,“网址”:“http:\ x2fww.yidianzixun.com内容?Id=283790617747872," "类别":"健康"、"图像":" 0oqyhus 2gr "、" upload _ images _ v ":[],"评论_计数":4,"喜欢":6,"向上":4,"授权":真," is _ gov ":假。" content_type":"news "," ctype":"news "," b_political":false," docid":"0OqYHuAC "," dt type ":1," wemedia_id":919536," enable_top":true," impid ":_ 1584066775986 _ 0OVFPMky _ n2n "," detail ":{ " vfactor":"news2news_fromid_rel "," factor ":" news 2 news _ fromid _ rel "," trans_info":{"mashtype "北京市医学会血液净化分会第一届青年委员会委员;中国医学教育协会泌尿外科和血液净化专业委员会委员;医学专家,北京医学会血液净化分会腹膜透析专家组工作秘书;北京血液净化质量控制与改善中心腹膜透析专家组成员发表2篇由国际SCI收录的论文,国家核心,image _ attribute _ update: false,source:popular science of panda medicine,author _ dtype: yidian郝,title:肾脏可能在呼救,我国已有1.32亿人患有这种疾病——肾病,网址:http:\ x2f \\ fww \u yidian \\ x2fmp \u content?Id=283584650133920 ","类别":"健康","形象":" 0oq6adwvaf "," upload _ images _ v ":[],"评论_计数":46,"喜欢":53,"向上":15,"我_联盟_范围":64,"授权":真。"is_gov":false," content_type":"news "," ctype":"news "," b_political":false," docid":"0Oq6aD2z "," dt type ":1," wemedia_id":239778," enable_top":true," impid ":_ 1584066775986 _ 0OVFPMky _ n2n "," detail ":{ " vfactor":"news2news_fromid_rel "," factor ":" news 2news _ fromid _ rel "," trans_info " "”,“image _ attribute _ update”:false,“source”:“四川名医”,“author _ dtype”:“一点好”,“title”:“研究:百货店40例相关病例中无一例有湖北居住史或有不明传染源”,“网址”:“http:\ x2f \ x2fww.yidianzixun.com \ x2f内容?Id=283122014630336 ","类别":"健康,社会","形象":" 0opx3orak3 "," enable _ top ":true," upload _ images _ v ":[]," removed ":false,"范围":0,"注释_计数":68。"如":18," up":11," auth":true," is_gov":false," content_type":"news "," ctype":"news "," b_political":false," docid":"0OpX3OWp "," dt type ":1," wemedia_id":131416," impid ":_ 1584066775986 _ 0OVFPMky _ n2n "," detail ":{ " vfactor": "news2news _ fromid _ rel "," factor ":" news 2 news _ from是季节性流感、普通感冒还是新的冠状肺炎?最近,许多医生正在分析病情,以确定病人是否需要,如何进行检查和护理,以及他们是否需要担心。”,“Image _ Attribut _ Update”:False,“Source”:“Watch the News”,“Author _ DType”:“一点好”,“Title”:“流感与新皇冠肺炎:相似的症状,不同的担忧”,“网址”:“HTTPS:\ x2f \ x2fww.shobserver.com \ X2 fydzx \ x2fhtml \ x2f222957.html”,“mtype”:1,“类别”:“健康”,“图像”:“0opspgl6c”,“上传_ images _ v”:“[],“喜欢”:3,“向上”:2,“验证”:真,“is _ gov”:假。”content_type":"news "," ctype":"news "," b_political":false," docid":"0Opsppji "," dt type ":1," wemedia_id":251853," enable_top":true," impid ":_ 1584066775986 _ 0OVFPMky _ n2n "," detail ":{ " vfactor":"news2news_fromid_rel "," factor ":" news 2 news _ fromid _ rel "," trans_info":{"mashtype ":"血糖的测量看起来很简单,但是如果我们不注意一些细节,就会导致血糖测量值的误差值很大,这将进一步影响我们的血糖控制方案。“WM _ copyright”:“Original”,“Image _ ATTRIBUT _ UPDATE”:FALSE,“SOURCE”:“Health care details”,“AUTHOR _ DTYPE”:“一点好”,“标题”:“血糖检测,第一滴血是4.8,第二滴血是5.4,哪一滴血更好?”" URL ":" http:\ x2f \u fwww . yidianshin . com \u FMP \u x2f content?Id = 2830717350368 ","类别":"健康","图像":" 0opr1 s1l5 "," upload _ images _ v ":[],"向上":1,"授权":真," is _ gov ":假,"内容_类型":"新闻"," ctype ":"新闻"," b _政治":假," docid":"0OpR1sdb "," dt type ":1," wemedia_id":970189," enable_top ":真," impid ":_ 15840667755 x2ficvkmie 0 _ 7900d1d1d1.jpg ","摘要":"","粘性":false," book count ":" 496.2万人订阅"," disable _ op ":0},{"id ":"u299 "," type ":"category "," name ":" living "," image ":" http:\ x2f \ x2fs.go2yd.com \ x2fb \ F9 tcy _ 660 faf . jpg "," summary ":" "," sticky ":false," bookcount": "210691,000订户"," disable _ op ":0 它整合了网易原有的金融多媒体矩阵,依靠数百位国内外顶尖经济学家的智慧,对经济学热点问题进行理性、客观的分析和解读,创造了一个具有前瞻性的金融智库。”、“媒体_领域”、“财经”、“口号”、“你的鼓励是我的动力”、“阳光计划_标志”、“阳光计划_数字”、“复制_权利_标志”、“发件人身份”、“渠道_身份”、“渠道_身份”、“M1546455”、“来源_类型”、“2”、“类型”、“媒体”、“加_v”、“可_奖励”、“虚假”、“标题_序号”、“0}} window . web monitor & & window . web monitor . sendpvLog(); var _ BDhmPROTOCOL =(((“https:“= = document . location . PROTOCOL”)。" https://" " http://"; 文档. write(unescape(“% 3 script src =”+_ BDhmProtocol+”hm . Baidu . com/h . js % 3 f15 Fafbae2b 9 b 11d 280 c 79 eff3 b 840 e 45 ' type = ' text/JavaScript“% 3E % 3C/脚本% 3E”); var _ maq = _ maq | |[]; _maq.push(['_setAccount ',' yidian _ web ']); (函数(){ var ma = document.createElement(“脚本”); ma . type = ' text/JavaScript '; ma.async =真; ma . src = '//www . qchannel 03 . cn/m . js '; 变量s =文档。getElementsByTagName(“脚本”)[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ma,s); })();

大家都在看

相关专题