【解读】姜艳川、胡波：中菲“中业岛危机”爆发？中国百船围岛？原来……（中英文）

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上周以来，美国战略与国际研究中心（CSIS）附属的“亚洲海事透明倡议”（AMTI）发布消息，制造“中业岛危机”，并且被一些媒体转载炒作。

本文发布于“环球网”，作者系北京瞰天科技有限公司总经理姜艳川，盘古智库学术委员、北京大学海洋战略研究中心执行主任胡波。

菲律宾《每日问询者报》14日引述菲武装部队总参谋长马德里加尔的话称，不必对有关“中国船舰在中业岛（Thitu Island，菲律宾称Pag-asa，即希望之岛）附近活动增加”的报告产生担忧。此前一天，《马尼拉公报》也引述他的话强调，没有收到任何关于中国渔船在中业岛附近海域数量增加的报告。

上周以来，美国战略与国际研究中心（CSIS）附属的“亚洲海事透明倡议”（AMTI）发布消息，制造“中业岛危机”，并且被一些媒体转载炒作。它们推测，“菲律宾近期在南沙群岛的中业岛填海造地期间，曾被近百艘中国船舰围岛，双方一度在中业岛海域对峙”。AMTI称，估计大量中国船只从2018年7月起，就在中业岛与旁边的渚碧礁（Subi Reef）一带活动，似乎是对菲律宾从2018年5月开始在中业岛修补飞机跑道做出回应。在菲律宾填海期间，中国采取“包围战”，从渚碧礁出动渔船、海警船和军舰，层层包围中业岛。中国船只在2018年12月3日增加到至少24艘；从12月中旬至今年1月底拍摄的五组系列卫星照片显示，船只的数目时有变动，12月20日当天多达95艘，到了1月26日减至42艘。

中菲“中业岛危机”似乎一触即发。事实究竟如何？根据AMTI提供的卫星图像和收集的公开资料进行综合分析，我们不难有以下结论。

一是未发现中方有针对中业岛的大规模行动。从AMTI提供的卫星图（图1）中，我们可以看到，该卫星图像的拍摄区域主要是中业岛所属中业群礁的潟湖，中业岛并未出现在图像上，其实际位置位于该幅图像的东方，如图2所示。从新闻报道中，我们可以得知，菲律宾主要通过由巴拉望岛出发的船只和飞机对其侵占的中业岛进行补给，而巴拉望岛位于中业岛的东南方向，因此，中业岛的东方和南方是菲律宾的补给通道。而卫星图像里的中方舰船主要位于中业岛的西侧，并未干扰乃至截断菲律宾对中业岛的补给通道，根本谈不上对中业岛的围堵。AMTI的报告将中业群礁的潟湖与中业岛混为一谈，实有移花接木、哗众取宠的嫌疑。

二是中方船只在中业岛附近的活动没有太多异常。中业群礁是中国渔民在南海的传统热带渔场之一，除中国大陆和台湾的渔民外，不少菲律宾、越南和马来西亚等国的渔民也纷纷到这里捕鱼，因此这一带渔船聚集比较常见。

2018年8月16日，南海海域在结束“史上最长”休渔期（从5月1日开始）后迎来开渔。大量渔船扬帆启航，奔赴南海渔场捕鱼作业，有一些中国渔船出现在南沙岛礁周围不足为奇。AMTI卫星图像上显示船只数量变动较大的12月份，临近中国传统佳节春节，而春节正是中国水产需求旺季。因此，偶然出现的大量中国船只有很大可能是集中捕鱼的渔船。而其中出现的个别公务船只正是监管渔业生产的渔政、海警舰船。

而与AMTI发布的卫星图像同时段的2018年12月26日，中国“高景一号”卫星拍摄的中业岛遥感影像图，进一步佐证了我们的推断。从图中可以看出，除了在岛的西南侧有两艘渔船正向西北方向航行外，岛的周围没有任何船只。显然，中业岛对峙完全是在错误图像解读基础上臆想出来的。

与AMTI发布的卫星图像同时段的2018年12月26日，中国“高景一号”卫星拍摄的中业岛遥感影像图。

此外，如果中业岛方向真的出现纷争，相信中菲两国也有渠道和足够的智慧妥善处理好。动不动就“围堵”，不是中国人的行事风格。如此不严谨的臆测给人以唯恐天下不乱之感，也不利于南海局势的稳定。当前，在中国和大多数东盟国家的努力下，南海局势持续降温。国际社会要相信南海地区内国家“搁置争议”和“管控分歧”的意愿和能力，停止不必要的炒作，共同维护南海局势稳定。

Only conjecture

Jiang Yanchuan and Hu Bo

With regard to the "Zhongye Dao Crisis" provoked by Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI) of the Washington-based think tank, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the incumbent Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces of the Philippines Gen. Benjamin Madrigal Jr. has played down AMTI's report that Chinese vessels have been gathering near Zhongye Dao (Thitu Island), saying that no reports of increased number of Chinese vessels had been received, as quoted by The Philippine Daily Inquirer on February 14.

Since last week, the phantom "Zhongye Dao Crisis" has been spread after AMTI alleged in a report on February 6 that some 100 Chinese vessels had been employed around Zhongye Dao in response to new construction by the Philippines.

AMTI claimed that a handful of Chinese vessels had operated in the area between Zhubi Jiao (Subi Reef) and Zhongye Dao since July 2018 likely as a response to the initial Philippine efforts to start runway repair last May. And their numbers increased to at least 24 on December 3. China employed concentric layers of fishing, law enforcement, and naval vessels around the area, which was called "cabbage strategy." In five subsequent satellite images captured from mid-December to late January, the numbers fluctuated, reaching a high of 95 on December 20 before dropping to 42 by January 26.

The report seemed to draw a link between the Philippines and China's stake. What was actually happening near the island?

Wrong conclusion

It is not hard to see that AMTI jumped to the wrong conclusion from the satellite images it released and information publicly available.

First, Chinese vessels were not found engaging in intensive activities directed at Zhongye Dao as the island is not on the satellite image released by AMTI. The image mainly shows the lagoon around Zhongye Qunjiao (Thitu Island and reefs) instead. Zhongye Dao is located east to the location shown on the image. (See Picture 1)

According to some common sense, vessels and airplanes sending supplies to Zhongye Dao (illegally occupied by the Philippines) depart from Palawan Island, which is located southeast of Zhongye Dao. Therefore, the Philippines' supply ships and planes commute in the east and south areas of Zhongye Dao. However, Chinese vessels on the satellite image were on the waters west of Zhongye Dao, never interrupting or blocking the Philippines' supply to Zhongye Dao or even touching on the so-called cabbage strategy. The report attempted to make a fuss by confusing Zhongye Dao with lagoon of Zhongye Qunjiao.

Second, activities of Chinese vessels in the area are within the normal range. Waters near Zhongye Qunjiao have long been Chinese fishermen's traditional tropical fishing grounds in the South China Sea. In addition to Chinese fishing boats, many fishing boats from the Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia also operate in the area. Therefore, it's quite normal to see fishing boat clusters in the area.

When China ended its long-time annual fishing moratorium in the South China Sea on August 16, 2018, which was started on May 1, a number of fishing boats sailed toward the fishing grounds in the South China Sea. It's not surprising to see them operating around.

AMTI seemed to stress the fluctuation of numbers of Chinese vessels in December, however, the number increases likely because of the rising demand for seafood in the upcoming Chinese Spring Festival. Chinese vessels in the AMTI report are more likely a cluster of working Chinese fishing boats, while few law enforcement vessels were there to supervise their operation.

Moreover, the image taken by Chinese satellite "SuperView-1" (See Picture 2) on December 26, 2018 supports that there was no vessel around Zhongye Dao except for two fishing boats southwest sailing northwest. Obviously, "Zhongye Dao Crisis" is nothing but sheer conjecture after misreading the images.

Stability at sea

Besides, supposing there was crisis arising on Zhongye Dao, we're confident that China and the Philippines are able to handle the issue properly with adequate channels and wisdom. Unprovoked "surround" is never an option for Chinese people. Such an irresponsible and invalid conjecture serves no good purpose to the existing stability in the South China Sea but only shows its desire to see the region in disorder.

Currently, situation in the South China Sea has been cooled down with the joint efforts of China and ASEAN member states. The international community should cease the unnecessary hype on the South China Sea and believe that regional countries are willing and able to shelve disputes and manage differences, and contribute to the stability in the South China Sea.■

责任编辑：王丹琳

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